Research - work in progress
1- "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: nonlinear unit root tests. Revisited". With Juan Carlos Cuestas.
Status: first Draft completed on April 2010
File: working paper (pdf file)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to provide additional evidence on the purchasing power parity empirical fulfillment in a pool of OECD countries. To do so, we apply Harvey et al. (2008) linearity test and Kruse (2010) nonlinear unit root test. The results point to the fact that the purchasing power parity theory holds in a greater number of countries than it has been reported in previous studies.
J.E.L. Classification: C32, F15.
Key words: Real exchange rates, purchasing power parity, nonlinearities, unit root tests.
2- "Infrastructure and the Location of FDI. A Spatial Analysis for Argentina". With Lucio Castro and Daniel Saslavsky. Winner of the Support Program for Research and Development Issues, Comunidad Andina de Fomento, in 2007 (published on the news) and presented at LACEA the same year. CAF is a development bank based in South America.
Status: Second draft completed on 10th December 2007 (First Draft, 7th September 2007)
File: working paper (pdf file)
working paper presented to CAF (pdf file) - link to CAF site
Abstract:
In 1990’s, Argentina became a top destination for FDI in developing countries. The geographical distribution of FDI inflows was, however, highly uneven. In parallel, the spatial allocation of public infrastructure greatly mirrored these regional disparities. What were the determinants of FDI location? What was the role of infrastructure? This paper attempts to answer these questions using spatial econometric techniques for a panel of regional and FDI data of the Argentine provinces. Results suggest that space matters for FDI location, indicating some competition effects in FDI inflows between neighbouring provinces. Paved roads seem also matter but other proxies of infrastructure do not seem to be that important.
JEL Classification: F21, F23, C01, H54,
Key words: Foreign Direct Investment, Infrastructure, Spatial Econometrics, Economic Geography
3- "FDI-led growth in a panel of countries". With Juan Carlos Cuestas from Nottingham Trent University.
Status: Data collection Finished. Programming and Initial results
Most growth theory proposes foreign investment is of primary importance in the private sector to promote development. Empirical work should contribute to the debate through serious effort to address some issues: the economic significance of FDI inflows for growth and the causality direction of the relationship. W intend to explore these implications using panel cointegration procedures in Gauss to study long–run FDI-led growth in a sample of countries representative of the world economy. Different groups of countries may be distinguished by geography, income, exchange rate regime, trade openness, etc. to better understand patterns across regional, institutional and economic policy differences.
4- "Traffic Accidents: the effect of Infrastructure and Economic Development" World Bank, Research Proposal. With Luis Andres and Tomas Serebrisky.
Status: Research Proposal
I am particularly motivated to explore road safety issues from a cross country perspective. My interest in traffic accidents is twofold: whether better road networks can be associated with lower road fatalities/injuries and the relationship between traffic road crashes, development and poverty. The motivation stems from four facts. First, rising motorization has increased road-traffic crashes, a main world’s public health concern. In 2002, road-traffic crashes killed almost 1.2 million people and will become the third cause of death in the world by 2020 (WHO report). Second, most of the fatalities (85%) occur in developing countries. Third, previous research (by Kopitz and Cropper) finds an inverted U-shaped curve between traffic fatalities and per capita income, suggesting a complex relationship between traffic fatalities and development. Fourth, road infrastructure is usually associated with safetier road conditions but there is evidence of the contrary. Pioneering work by Noland finds that investment in road infrastructure may be increasing human losses since better road conditions are associated with higher vehicle speeds, boosting traffic accidents.
5- “El Fenomeno de la Convergencia Regional: Una Contribucion”.
Status: Final Draft (Spanish version only)
File: link to AAEP version
The study of economic growth has been a subject of great interest in Economics since the times of the Classical School. Small differences in growth rates during long periods of time can give rise to very significant gaps in per capita income. Building on previous research efforts, the present paper provides an empirical analysis of convergence among the Provinces in Argentina. New estimates are obtained using data on Gross Provincial Product for the period 1980-1998 as well as its breakdown in Great Divisions. Both absolute and conditional convergence are addressed by means of cross section and panel data, respectively.
JEL Classification: O4, C3,
Key words: Beta and Sigma Convergence, Regional Growth
6- "Persistencia en el Nivel de Desempleo: el Caso de Argentina (1980-2001)".
Status: Final Draft (Spanish version only)
File: working paper (pdf file)
Endogenous multiple structural breaks are introduced to estimate the Phillips curve under the hypothesis of hysteresis in the unemployment rate. The equation to be estimated is derived from a formal model where wage and price setters interact to find the natural level of unemployment. The structural break moves the natural level of unemployment. The impressive positive trend of the unemployment rate from 1993 suggests that taking in account structural breaks may be essential for empirical estimation of the Phillips curve.